Reddit threads, rumors, and nonsense all hit simultaneously Tuesday, with millions of dollars coming in to bet on Kentucky quarterback Will Levis to be drafted No. 1 overall in Thursday’s 2023 NFL Draft.
Thanks to a Reddit thread started by the reputable “SaleAgreeable2834” who claimed the Panthers had told Levis he would be getting selected first overall, the odds market saw an unbelievable shift towards the Kentucky quarterback, who dropped from 50:1 to +500 to go first overall in a matter of hours.
Since then, the market has stabilized, and Levis has moved back to +1000 on FanDuel, but this Reddit thread moved the market and likely lost the general gambling population huge sums of money.
We shouldn’t be surprised, either; Reddit is also responsible for half a billion dollars being pumped into the failing GameStop stock.
But like the Reddit-GameStop stock pump, most people will end up losing big when reacting to rumors like this in the betting market.
“This certainly draws parallels with the Game Stop situation as it has driven a lot of action on Levis to go first overall,” Caesars Sportsbook’s lead college football trader, Joey Feazel, told The Post.
“In a similar situation last year, information came out that the Houston Texans preferred Derek Stingley over Sauce Gardner, and Stingley was at much higher odds for the third pick.
The information was accurate and many people had tickets with high odds for him to be picked third.
With that fresh on the mind from last year’s draft, many bettors will bet that information for fear of missing out, even if they cannot get the original odds of 40/1, and that also draws parallels.”
We actually predicted this outcome last year after Pablo Banchero’s line got smashed by bettors, despite reporters believing that the Magic were targeting Jabari Smith.
Banchero would go on to be drafted No. 1 overall, and those who were quick enough to get the bets in cashed out.
Bettors would likely jump the gun again on information they perceived as inside information – even if it was just a steamed line on air.
It is possible that inside information will come out on Reddit in the future, but risking big amounts of money on something as untrustworthy as Reddit is a fool’s errand.
In this case, Panthers coach Frank Reich all but said that it would be Bryce Young drafted No. 1 overall.
“I don’t want to say there’s any drastic change of mind, but there’s ebbs and flows of how much you like a guy. And that’s why you have to resist the temptation of making your mind up too early, right?” Reich said.
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Caesars didn’t report any massive bets, although one Illinois bettor chased the steam with two $500 bets on Levis at +1600.
A PointsBet spokesperson told The Post that Levis had seen a massive increase in volume over the past 48 hours.
Levis is now third in bet total and total dollars bet on PointsBet.
But for now, the lines hold steady as the world waits for Thursday evening with the NFL Draft in Kansas City.