Seeing everyone’s betslips on Paolo Banchero 16/1 to go No. 1 overall and want in on the action?
Of course! Everyone heard about bettors beating the books and proving ESPN reporter Adrian Wojnarowski wrong last week.
Obscure markets have been the place where sharp bettors and inside traders make money on speculation.
But not so fast. Public steam may be ready to go off their rocker coming on the heels of a few victories against oddsmakers.
Just check out this wild line movement in just 30 minutes at FanDuel on the 2022 NBA Draft.
Anyone who got to their apps quick enough clearly won big. But is this solid enough to rely on going forward? Unlikely.
There is something about these betting markets that makes bettors believe that they are betting with an edge. The reality is that’s not always the case and bettors should take these situations with an abundance of caution going forward.
Below we take a look at the recent victories, but also the losses and inevitable dangers involved with this practice.
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Public victories: Top picks in the NFL Draft
2021: Drafts in the NFL and NBA are clearly a time that bettors with inside knowledge look to pounce. Aside from this year’s NBA draft, there is also the 2021 NFL Draft. The San Francisco 49ers were in the middle of a smokescreen game of which quarterback they would be taking at No. 3 overall.
On the day of the draft, Mac Jones was -200 and Trey Lance was +175 to go third.
Then came Pat McAfee on his podcast saying, “Sources told me… Mac Jones ain’t goin’ three.” The public gobbled up that information and spit it right back out at the bookmakers. Betting Lance to go three from +175 to favorite status.
He would go on to be drafted by the 49ers and is expected to be the starting quarterback this season.
2022: As far as reporting goes, the consensus No. 1 pick went back and forth between Kayvon Thibodeaux and Aidan Hutchinson. No one had expected a third pass rusher, Travon Walker from Georgia, to enter the conversation.
Sure enough, he did. Per Fox Sports, Walker was +3000 on Sunday (even higher than Banchero!) to go No. 1 overall in that Thursday’s draft. His numbers plummeted down to -162 by Tuesday and lower.
Trying to get in on the action, the public is defeated
On Monday, Kyrie Irving and the Nets were in the midst of a public battle over a new contract.
With some speculation that Irving could take a $30 million pay cut out of spite and go to the Lakers, bettors flocked to their sports betting apps to bet on a new (potential) Big 3 of LeBron James, Irving and Anthony Davis in LA.
As of Tuesday morning, BetMGM Sportsbook moved the Lakers NBA Finals odds from +2200 to +1400, citing 11.2% of tickets and 12.8% of the handle on a team that outright missed the playoffs in 2021.
In some states — usually just New Jersey,Colorado, and Illinois — you are allowed to bet on arbitrary markets like “Next team (X player) will play for.”
With Irving’s future in limbo up until opting into his contract Monday, bets came flying in on Deandrew Ayton to be a Net. The odds movement was pretty wild as it even got as low as +225 for Ayton to play in Brooklyn.
Bettors undoubtedly have no idea what Irving is thinking or intending on doing with his career, but that didn’t stop them. Big money was likely lost here when Irving predictably took the most money with a return to the Nets, with Ayton is back to searching for a new team.
Let’s also not forget that bettors can wager onHollywood awards.
In New Jersey in 2018, bettors slammed wagers on the Academy Awards and director of “The Favourite” Yorgos Lanthimos. Based solely on rumor, the 45:1 longshot was steamed all the way to +500 before the odds were taken off the board.
The Action Network’s Sean Zerillo cautioned against betting based on rumors:
PointsBet, for example, both tweeted that they had taken sharp action on Lanthimos, before later cautioning on the dangers of following steam.
The winner of the Best Director award would go on to be the initial steep favorite, “Roma” director Alfonso Cuarón.
There have been some victories, but that does not mean the next situation is where you unload your bankroll with the hope of making an easy buck.
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In sports betting, you can learn from everything. But bettor beware, these cases are the exception, not the rule. Proceed with caution.
