If you weren’t already entertained by a wild first-round series between the Lakers and Grizzlies, you surely got your money’s worth on Monday night, when Los Angeles survived a thrilling overtime affair to take a 3-1 lead in the series.
Now this series shifts back to Memphis, where Wednesday’s hosts are dealing as 4.5-point favorites at BetMGM in a do-or-die spot for the No. 2 seed in the West.
Will the Grizzlies live to fight another day, or can the Lakers put the finishing touches on a mostly dominant showing thus far?
Here’s how we’re betting Wednesday’s contest, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Grizzlies vs. Lakers odds
(via BetMGM)
- Grizzlies -4.5 (-105), moneyline -185
- Lakers +4.5 (-115), moneyline +150
- O/U 222.5 (-110)
Grizzlies vs. Lakers prediction and analysis
(7:30 p.m. ET on TNT)
I’ve been incredibly high on the Lakers ahead of and throughout this series, backing them in all four games to this point with three wins against the spread to show for it.
And I love the value here in an underdog spot for the superior team in this matchup.
Sure, Los Angeles was fortunate to cover in Game 5, which was a back-and-forth affair until a late foul in overtime blessed those laying the points.
Still, it spoke to the relentless nature of this Lakers team, which has thrived in close games thanks to its array of talented playmakers on both ends of the court.
LeBron James was spectacular on Monday, scoring 22 points with some clutch buckets late in the game against polarizing guard Dillon Brooks to salt the game away.
He also regularly exploited the Grizzlies’ lack of size inside – grabbing 20 rebounds for the first time in his storied 20-year career.
That’s largely been the story of this series: with Steven Adams (knee) and Brandon Clarke (Achilles) both on the mend, the Lakers have attacked the paint with reckless abandon to great success.
They’ve scored 48.6% of their points in the paint – most of any team this postseason – while also leading the field in blocks per game (9.3) by a wide margin.
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Can the Grizzlies adjust in Game 5? Ja Morant came down to earth following his 45-point outburst in Game 4, scoring just 19 points in Monday’s loss, and only one Memphis player shot better than 50% from the floor (Xavier Tillman, 5-of-9).
That simply won’t cut it against a team regularly enjoying 20-point outputs from the likes of Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura and co.
Los Angeles has proven to be the deeper team in this series, but it’s also flexed its high-end talent and size advantage on both ends convincingly through the first four games of this series.
There’s a case to be made for Memphis in a must-win spot at home, but this price is inflating that value and leaving far too many points on the better side.
Grizzlies vs. Lakers pick
- Lakers +4.5 (-115 BetMGM)