One of the best gambling days on the calendar has arrived.
The 2023 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 6 at 6:57 p.m. ET on the iconic dirt track at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
The race will feature 19 horses (Skinner, Practical Move, Lord Miles and Continuar were scratched and replaced with Mandarin Hero, King Russell and Cyclone of Mischief) and is headlined by No. 15 Forte (3-1), No. 5 Tapit Trice (5-1) and No. 14 Angel of Empire (8-1).
In all likelihood it will be Forte that goes off as the clear favorite as it is expected that Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale – a furniture tycoon from Houston that uses betting as a hedge against promotions at his furniture store – will bet millions of dollars on Forte to win.
It sounds ludicrous, but McIngvale’s money will completely change the outlook of the pool when it hits.
It does seem that there are a couple of consensus narratives around the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
For one, there does seem to be a lack of pace — or at least nobody feels confident of what the pace situation will look like — and the railbirds also appear to be in agreement that this field is pretty weak compared to previous years.
These factors seem to point to this being a wide-open race with several horses that could reasonably be considered a contender to win.
So let’s take a look at the morning-line odds and run through some picks:
2023 Kentucky Derby Odds
| No. 1 Hit Show | 30-1 |
| No. 2 Verifying | 15-1 |
| No. 3 Two Phil’s | 12-1 |
| No. 4 Confidence Game | 20-1 |
| No. 5 Tapit Trice | 5-1 |
| No. 6 Kingsbarns | 12-1 |
| No. 7 Reincarnate | 50-1 |
| No. 8 Mage | 15-1 |
| No. 11 Disarm | 30-1 |
| No. 12 Jace’s Road | 15-1 |
| No. 13 Sun Thunder | 30-1 |
| No. 14 Angel of Empire | 8-1 |
| No. 15 Forte | 3-1 |
| No. 16 Raise Cain | 15-1 |
| No. 17 Derma Sotogake | 10-1 |
| No. 18 Rocket Can | 30-1 |
| No. 21 Cyclone Mischief | 45-1 |
| No. 22 Mandarin Hero | 29-1 |
| No. 23 King Russell | 44-1 |
Fade: No. 15 Forte (3-1)
If, as expected, “Mattress Mack” does back Forte, this price will be even shorter than the morning-line price of 3-1.
It’s hard to justify betting anybody at that price in a 19-horse field, so we’ll try and beat the favorite and just tip our cap if Forte provides the goods.
Pick to win: No. 5 Tapit Trice (5-1)
Like Forte, there are some questions to be asked about Tapit Trice in this field.
He’s a closer that needs a good trip to be in position to make his late move, but with the suggested lack of pace in this field, he should have the stamina to get the job done.
Not the best value to win, but my pick to win if you’re looking for that sort of thing.
Best value to win:No. 17 Derma Sotogake (10-1)
The winner of the UAE Derby ships in from Japan and will look become the first horse from his home country to win the Kentucky Derby.
The fact that we’ve yet to see a Japanese winner in this race is keeping his price in a good spot for bettors looking for value.
If this number does dip, bettors looking for a long shot winner can pivot to No 8. Mage.
Best long shot to use in exotics: No. 1 Hit Show (30-1)
I liked No. 7 Reincarnate as a potential long shot, but it seems like he is going to get bet up quite a bit, so I’ll pivot to No. 1 Hit Show.
No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post position since 1986, but this is a good buy-low spot on a horse that would be around 10-1 if he had a better starting spot.
Even if he doesn’t win, Hit Show can provide quite the payout on exotics if he hits the board, which I believe he can do.
Furthermore, it’s likely that this number gets bigger as we get closer to the race.
If you are afraid of the No. 1 position, another huge price to consider would be No. 21 Cyclone Mischief.