An inside look at how the 149th Kentucky Derby will shape up:
1. Hit Show (36-1)
Jockey: Manny Franco
Trainer: Brad Cox
Current form: Won the Withers on a cold February day at the Big A. Went off the favorite in the Wood Memorial, but got outkicked by 59-1 shot Lord Miles.
Worth a wager? Show time? Has been the favorite in each of his five starts. A price today. Never fastest from the gate. May get buried leaving from the rail. A troubled 10th.
2. Verifying (24-1)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Brad Cox
Current form: Ran into traffic when he finished fourth in the Rebel. Cleared for takeoff in the Blue Grass, he took a late lead before Tapit Trice stole the show.
Worth a wager? Verified his potential at Keeneland. Nailed late, but he’s a son of Triple Crown winner Justify. Highly unlikely he avoids the clubhouse-turn crush, so we put him eight.
3. Two Phil’s (8-1)
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Current form: The Jeff Ruby winner. Did it convincingly, flying home five lengths clear. A huge step up after running third to Angel of Empire in the Risen Star.
Worth a wager? Enters the Derby with the highest fig, but it was earned on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. Trainer Larry Rivelli: “This is the first time I got a loaded gun for the distance.” Has a chance. We will place him fifth.
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4. Confidence Game (19-1)
Jockey: James Graham
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Current form: The Rebel winner at odds of 18-1. Returns to Churchill Downs, where he won twice in four starts as a 2-year-old.
Worth a wager? Trained by Keith Desormeaux for the Don’t Tell My Wife Stables. The Rebel was in February. Well rested? Too much rest? A rusty 11th.
5. Tapit Trice (5-1)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Current form: Slow starter has rallied from out of the clouds to win four straight. Fell eight lengths behind in the Blue Grass before getting up under a vigorous Luis Saez.
Worth a wager? The Tapit gray finishes with energy and should relish the Derby distance. Will Saez be able to work out a clean trip? We’re betting on it. Winner.
6. Kingsbarns (12-1)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Current form: Mr. Perfect! Speedy colt is three-for-three after winning the Louisiana Derby, which is contested 1/16th of a mile short of the Run for the Roses distance.
Worth a wager? Undefeated, but who has he beaten? Not sure it matters. The pacesetter may have it his way on the lead. Jose Ortiz will try to ration out his speed. Think he hangs on … for second.
7. Reincarnate (16-1)
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Current form: Made it to the Derby by taking third-place points in both the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby. A bit leg weary at Arkansas …
Worth a wager? … and that’s why he’s 50-1 on the morning line. John Velazquez has won this race three times and he may dance with Kingsbarns early. A tired 13th.
8. Mage (17-1)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Current form: Broke last of 12 in the Florida Derby. Rallied to take a short lead before Forte’s flying finish proved to be a length better.
Worth a wager? If you like Forte, you have to consider Mage. Lightly raced, with one win from three starts. Luis Saez came off, so Javier Castellano will ride. Sixth.
9. Disarm (28-1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Current form: Could not reel in Kingsbarn in the Louisiana Derby. Gathered enough derby points by running home third in the shorter Lexington.
Worth a wager? After what happened to Steve Asmussen last year (Epicenter getting upset in the final yards by Rich Strike), it would be fitting. Not this year, Steve. 14th.
10. Jace’s Road (33-1)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Brad Cox
Current form: Trainer Brad Cox wanted to test him at the Derby distance and he wilted in the final furlong, finishing third to runaway winner Kingsbarn.
Worth a wager? Has speed, but it may be short-lived. Runs shorter trips this summer. Go down a different road. Long shot runs to his odds. 12th.
11. Sun Thunder (33-1)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Current form: No Thunder. Reported home fifth in the Louisiana Derby, then fourth in the Blue Grass. Beat by more than a half-dozen lengths in both.
Worth a wager? Jockey Brian Hernandez: “If he can get to the clubhouse turn in good order, he will be able to show his best foot.” Thinking he’s the potato salad at the wedding. There are better options. Not last. 17th.
12. Angel of Empire (6-1)
Jockey: Flavian Prat
Trainer: Brad Cox
Current form: Sweeping moves to avoid traffic to get up and win the Risen Star then Arkansas Derby. Brad Cox has four entered. This may be his best chance.
Worth a wager? Stalker. And Flavien Prat should get a good look breaking from the 14 post. Contender, but can’t bet ’em all. Third.
13. Raise Cain (32-1)
Jockey: Gerrardo Corrales
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Current form: Won the one-turn Gotham mile (at 23-1) by open lengths. Fortunes took a turn for the worse in the two-turn Blue Grass where he was a flat fifth.
Worth a wager? Back to reality. Until further notice a mile or a mile and a 1/16th may be his ceiling. Envision him backing up late. 15th.
14. Derma Sotogake (12-1)
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Trainer: Hidetaka Olonashi
Current form: Japanese colt punched his ticket by winning the UAE Derby at Meydan by five lengths. Can he overcome the Dubai jinx?
Worth a wager? No horse has won both. In fact they have fallen well short. Strong to the wire. Distance not an issue. Travel may be. In-the-mix fourth.
15. Rocket Can (31-1)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Bill Mott
Current form: One of the winter-book favorites ran second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth. No longer considered top tier after turning up fourth in the Arkansas.
Worth a wager? Loved him early in the year, but he failed to fire as the favorite, losing to Angel of Empire at Oaklawn. Rocket can’t. Midpack. Seventh.
16. Cyclone Mischief (64-1)
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Trainer: Dale Romans
Current form: Hold on. We have a late entry. Dale Romans’ colt finished third to Forte in the both Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Worth a wager? Set to run in the Preakness, he drew in after Practical Move spiked a fever. Shorter distance at Pimlico may have been better. A late-to-the-party 16th.
17. Mandarin Hero (45-1)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Trainer: Terunobu Fujita
Current form: Lord Miles is out. And a third Japanese-bred colt is in. Went four for four as a 2-year-old. Is zero-for-two this year, but ran second between Practical Move and Skinner in the Santa Anita Derby.
Worth a wager? Chaos rules. Two late scratches enabled him to sneak in the back door. Pulled down a triple-digit fig in a losing effort. Shows up. Ninth.
18. King Russell (55-1)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Current form: Broke his maiden on his sixth attempt. Then a surprising second at odds of 58-1 between Angel of Empire and Reincarnate in the Arkansas Derby.
Worth a wager? While Charles will be crowned King on Saturday this King will play the part of the Derby joker. With Continuar out, he is the last of 18.
