A 3-0 score is the most dangerous lead in hockey, and Game 1 of Avalanche-Stars was just a textbook example of why.
Dallas opened its Western Conference semifinal series on Tuesday looking like the same team that had just edged Vegas in Game 7, tallying three goals in the first period and administered a convincing level of offensive zone pressure on Colorado.
That all went down the creek as the Stars registered a grand total of nine shots on Alexandar Georgiev throughout the second and third periods.
The Dallas penalty kill failed to survive on both of the Avalanche’s power plays and the game went awry until Miles Wood sealed the comeback in overtime, giving Colorado a 1-0 series lead.
The two teams lace it up for Game 2 on Thursday night in Dallas. Here’s a preview.
Avalanche vs. Stars odds
| Team | Moneyline | Puck Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | +114 | +1.5 (-225) | o6,5 (-102) |
| Stars | -135 | -1.5 (+185) | u6.5 (-118) |
Avalanche vs. Stars prediction
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are a marathon. By the second round, you’re about seven miles in and the heavy legs and mental fog are just beginning.
These kinds of games are part of the journey and it’s certainly not indicative of what kind of club the Stars have been this season.
Playing a complete 60 minutes is difficult to sustain every night in the playoffs, but it’s what Dallas will need to do on Thursday to even this series.
They remain the No. 1 team in the playoffs in expected goals rate at five-on-five and dominated the Avs in faceoffs, 40-27.
There’s also nothing to worry about with Jake Oettinger. He was beaten on the back door twice and Wood’s game-winner can also be attributed to a boneheaded turnover in the offensive zone.
Oettinger remains in the top 10 of playoff goaltenders in goals saved above expected and Tuesday was the first time he let up more than two goals since Game 1 in the first round.
Oettinger posted a .942 save percentage and 1.21 goals against average in the six games that followed.
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I don’t instill the same level of trust in Georgiev.
He showed some lag with his puck tracking on all three of Dallas’ goals and owns negative 2.4 goals saved above expected — the third worst amongst playoff goaltenders.
He gets a little over-aggressive, and if the Stars can continue congesting the slot, they will cash in on more trashy goals.
Avalanche vs. Stars pick
It’s a safe (but not too expensive) play to back the Western Conference champions to respond emphatically in the American Airlines Center on Thursday.
They’ve proven they can handle Colorado; now it’s just executing.